Fatemezahra ilaninezhad; Einollah Keshavarz Turk; Mohammadrahim Eyvazi,; Mohammadmahdi Zoalfagarzade; Safar Fazli
Abstract
This study sought to design a framework for teaching foresight to top managers of governmental organizations in the Islamic Republic of Iran. First, the research literature in three areas of "management of governmental organizations", "foresight" and "teaching foresight" was reviewed. Then, using the ...
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This study sought to design a framework for teaching foresight to top managers of governmental organizations in the Islamic Republic of Iran. First, the research literature in three areas of "management of governmental organizations", "foresight" and "teaching foresight" was reviewed. Then, using the "Grounded Theory" method and using the "in-depth interview" tool, first-hand data were collected. This data in three different phases, through "open coding, axial coding and selective coding", were analyzed. Based on the research findings, a general framework for teaching foresight to top managers of Iranian governmental organizations was presented in which in addition to the category of foresight education as a axial category, other categories related to this field such as causal conditions, contextual conditions, intervening conditions, strategies and consequences were also introduced. Therefore, this macro framework can be used as a general model for teaching foresight to top managers of governmental organizations in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Bagher Babanejad; Mohsen Taheri Demneh; Samereh Shojaei; Mohammad Bagher Gorji
Abstract
One of the major challenges facing organizations is the expansion of factors affecting the designing a favorable outlook.Exploring environment trends to understand the future trend requires an approach beyond the usual methods of forecasting and planning.Foresight allows us to have narratives and believable ...
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One of the major challenges facing organizations is the expansion of factors affecting the designing a favorable outlook.Exploring environment trends to understand the future trend requires an approach beyond the usual methods of forecasting and planning.Foresight allows us to have narratives and believable images of emerging outlook from the insights gained.The purpose study is to present a picture of the future of the customs in the form of possible and compatible scenarios. In this mixed research, in order to achieve goals, data collection was done through the study of Mega-trends using scanning method and based on PESTEL analysis.The initial list was variables to find the most effective factors on the customs organization through telephone and email surveys of experts, which led to the design of a 30-factor questionnaire.By effectiveness of the matrix in an expert panel, data analysis in Micmac software led to the identification of four driving forces.The driving forces in 9 mode in CAI questionnaire a Spectrum of favorable to unfavorable conditions and according to the degree of importance and probability of occurrence, were surveyed by experts and analyzed with Scenario Wizard software.Findings show that the two scenarios of the current situation and Adaptive change will be the most likely future scenarios of customs.Familiarity with the narrative of each scenario and comparing their desirability can be the basis for designing future measures so that Iranian Customs can be a flexible, transparent and accountable organization in order to protect society, the health of goods and the satisfaction of stakeholders.
