Causation
Mohsen Taheri Demneh; sheyda Tayefe Hashemi; Zahra Heidari Darani
Abstract
This research was conducted as an applied research with the aim of corporate foresight in Isfahan Gas Company. In this research, a set of foresight methods including six pillars of future, trend analysis, expert panel, environmental scanning, and scenario writing have been used. Participants in this ...
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This research was conducted as an applied research with the aim of corporate foresight in Isfahan Gas Company. In this research, a set of foresight methods including six pillars of future, trend analysis, expert panel, environmental scanning, and scenario writing have been used. Participants in this study were 15 senior managers of Isfahan Gas Company who participated in more than twenty expert panels. The results showed that four major drivers, that is, 1- Relationship of the country with the global village, 2- Internal political tensions and resulted insecurity, 3- Gas company privatization, 4- Gas export, will affect the future of the Gas Company work environment. Based on the different combinations of these four drivers in the scenario planning software (scenario wizard) and the use of a scenario-based approach focusing on critical uncertainties, the story of three scenarios of 1. double effort in green state, 2. one to shore, one to nail in yellow state, 3. trying to survive in the red state, has been prepared. Finally, according to the provided scenario, suggestions for implementation were presented.
