طراحی چارچوبی برای آموزش آینده‌نگری به مدیران عالی سازمان‌های دولتی جمهوری اسلامی ایران

گیلانی‌نژاد, فاطمه زهرا; کشاورز ترک, عین الله; عیوضی, محمدرحیم; ذوالفقارزاده, محمدمهدی; فضلی, صفر

doi:10.30473/ipom.2021.8227

نوع مقاله : پیمایشی

نویسندگان

¹ دانشجوی دکتری، گروه آینده‌پژوهی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.

² استادیار، گروه آینده‌پژوهی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.

³ استاد، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران

⁴ استادیار، گروه مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

⁵ استاد، گروه مدیریت، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.

https://doi.org/10.30473/ipom.2021.8227

چکیده

این پژوهش در پی طراحی چارچوبی برای آموزش آینده‌نگری به مدیران عالی سازمان‌های دولتی جمهوری اسلامی ایران بود. ابتدا ادبیات پژوهش در سه حوزه «مدیریت سازمان‌های دولتی»، «آینده‌نگری» و «آموزش آینده‌نگری» براساس داده‌های اسنادی بررسی شد. سپس به کمک روش «داده‌بنیاد» و با استفاده از ابزار «مصاحبه عمیق» داده‌های دست‌ اول برای طراحیِ چارچوبِ موردنظر گردآوری شدند و در سه فاز مختلف ولی به هم پیوسته، از طریق «کدگذاری باز، کدگذاری محوری و کدگذاری انتخابی» مورد تحلیل قرار گرفتند. براساس یافته‌های پژوهش، یک چارچوب کلی برای آموزش آینده‌نگری به مدیران عالی سازمان‌های دولتی ایران ارائه شد که در آن علاوه‌بر مقوله آموزش آینده‌نگری به‌عنوان مقوله محوری، با نگاهی کلان دیگر مقولاتِ مربوط به این حوزه نظیر شرایط علّی، شرایط زمینه‌ای، شرایط مداخله‌گر، راهبردها و پیامدها نیز معرفی شدند. لذا، این چارچوب کلان و در عین حال تفصیلی می‌تواند، به‌عنوان یک الگوی کلی برای آموزش آینده‌نگری به مدیران عالی سازمان‌های دولتی جمهوری اسلامی ایران مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

20.1001.1.2322522.1400.10.1.3.8

عنوان مقاله [English]

Designing a Framework for Teaching Foresight to Top Managers of Governmental Organizations in the Islamic Republic of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

Fatemezahra ilaninezhad ¹
Einollah Keshavarz Turk ²
Mohammadrahim Eyvazi, ³
Mohammadmahdi Zoalfagarzade ⁴
Safar Fazli ⁵

¹ Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

² Assistant Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

³ Professor, Department of Political science, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran.

⁴ Assistant Professor, Department of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

⁵ Professor, Department of Management, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

چکیده [English]

This study sought to design a framework for teaching foresight to top managers of governmental organizations in the Islamic Republic of Iran. First, the research literature in three areas of "management of governmental organizations", "foresight" and "teaching foresight" was reviewed. Then, using the "Grounded Theory" method and using the "in-depth interview" tool, first-hand data were collected. This data in three different phases, through "open coding, axial coding and selective coding", were analyzed. Based on the research findings, a general framework for teaching foresight to top managers of Iranian governmental organizations was presented in which in addition to the category of foresight education as a axial category, other categories related to this field such as causal conditions, contextual conditions, intervening conditions, strategies and consequences were also introduced. Therefore, this macro framework can be used as a general model for teaching foresight to top managers of governmental organizations in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Foresight
Teaching Foresight
Organizational Training
Governmental Organizations
Top Management

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طراحی چارچوبی برای آموزش آینده‌نگری به مدیران عالی سازمان‌های دولتی جمهوری اسلامی ایران

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 10، شماره 1 (پیاپی 37)دی 1400صفحه 81-102

دوره 10، شماره 1 (پیاپی 37)
دی 1400
صفحه 81-102